Crypto trading · Intermediate

Tokenomics: Supply And Inflation Schedules

A token's issuance schedule is published years in advance, which makes it the one part of the supply and demand equation you can actually read.

Last reviewed 15 September 2026 by the MarketPro research desk · Editorial policy

In short

Tokenomics is the economic design of a cryptocurrency: how many units exist, how new ones are issued, how many are burned, and when locked tokens become sellable. Circulating supply is what trades today, total supply includes locked tokens, and maximum supply is the hard cap. The gap between them is future dilution with a published schedule.

What to remember

An unlock adding 100 million tokens to a 250 million float cuts the price 28.5% if the market cap simply holds where it was.
Float is the number to find first. Circulating divided by maximum supply under about 25% means most of the selling pressure has not arrived yet.
Net supply change is emissions minus burns. A protocol issuing 8% a year while burning 1% dilutes holders by roughly 7% annually.
Staking yields are often paid in newly issued supply, which makes an advertised 12% return considerably smaller in real terms.

Lesson 19 of 20 in Crypto trading

PreviousRisk Management For Crypto Positions NextCustody Risk: Exchanges Vs Cold Storage

A supply schedule is a calendar of future sellers

Tokenomics is the economic design of a cryptocurrency: how many units exist, how new ones are created, who holds them, and when the ones that are locked become sellable. It is the closest thing crypto has to a share count and a dilution schedule, and it is published, free and almost always ignored by people who spend hours on the chart instead.

The reason it matters is blunt. Price is set where demand meets supply, and a token's issuance schedule tells you exactly how much new supply arrives and when. Demand is unknowable. Supply, for most tokens, is written down years in advance.

An unlock that adds 40% to the float in one day

Here is the event that catches people. A token trades at 2.00 USD with 250 million tokens circulating, so a 500 million USD market cap. Its maximum supply is 1 billion, which puts fully diluted valuation at 2 billion.

	Before the unlock	After the unlock
Circulating supply	250,000,000	350,000,000
Price if market cap holds	2.00 USD	1.43 USD
Market cap	500 million USD	500 million USD

On the unlock date, 100 million tokens vest to early investors and the team. That is 40% added to the circulating float in a single day. For the price to stay at 2.00, the market has to absorb 200 million dollars of newly sellable supply, which means finding that much fresh demand. If it does not appear and the market cap simply holds where it was, the price settles near 1.43, a 28.5% decline caused by arithmetic rather than by anything happening to the project.

The date was public. It was in the token's documentation before it listed. Traders who check unlock calendars treat the fortnight around one as a period for smaller size or no position at all, and that single habit avoids a category of loss that has nothing to do with analysis.

Circulating, total and maximum supply

Circulating supply. Units currently tradable in the market. This is what market cap uses, and it is an estimate maintained by data providers rather than a fact.
Total supply. Everything minted so far, including tokens locked in vesting contracts or held by a treasury. The gap between this and circulating is the near-term overhang.
Maximum supply. The hard cap, where one exists. Bitcoin has one at 21 million. Many tokens have none at all, which means issuance continues indefinitely.
Float. The share of maximum supply already circulating. A 10% float with a high headline price is the classic setup for years of downward pressure from unlocks.

11 more sections in MarketPro

Emissions, burns, and the number that actually matters

Two mechanisms run in opposite directions. Emissions issue new tokens, usually to miners, validators or liquidity providers as an incentive. Burns permanently remove tokens, often funded by a share of transaction fees. A project is inflationary or deflationary depending on which is larger, and that balance can flip with network activity.

The number to find is the net annual change in circulating supply, expressed as a percentage. A protocol emitting 8% a year to stakers while burning 1% of fees is diluting holders by roughly 7% annually, and a position in it needs to appreciate 7% just to hold its share of the network. High staking yields are frequently paid in exactly this newly issued supply, which makes an advertised 12% yield closer to 5% in real terms, and sometimes negative.

Bitcoin's halving is the best-known version of a scheduled emission change, and it is unusual in being fixed, transparent and unchangeable. Most tokens can and do alter their emission parameters by governance vote, which makes the current schedule a plan rather than a promise.

Who holds it, and what vesting cliffs do

Distribution matters as much as quantity. A token where the team, the treasury and early investors hold 60% of supply has a different risk profile from one distributed widely, regardless of what the chart looks like, because a small number of decisions can move a large amount of supply.

Vesting usually works on a cliff-and-linear structure: nothing for twelve months, then a large tranche on the cliff date, then monthly releases for two or three years. The cliff is the event with the sharp price consequence. The linear tail is the slower one, a persistent daily seller that explains why some tokens grind downward for years with no bad news attached.

This information is public. Token documentation, the project's own transparency pages and several free unlock-tracking sites publish the schedule. Fifteen minutes of reading before a position is worth more than any indicator on the chart.

Reading a supply schedule before you size

Find the float. Circulating divided by maximum. Under about 25% means most of the supply has yet to arrive.
Compare market cap to fully diluted valuation. A large gap is future dilution, not a discount.
Diary the next unlock date. Reduce size or stand aside around it rather than discovering it afterwards.
Compute the net annual supply change. Emissions minus burns, as a percentage. That is your dilution headwind.
Check holder concentration. Public explorers show the top wallets. Heavy concentration is a liquidity risk as well as a governance one.

Supply mechanics are one input among several and they do not predict price. What they do is remove a specific category of surprise, which is the kind you could have seen coming. The trading glossary covers the terminology, and the position size calculator handles the part that follows, which is turning all of that into a position you can actually hold through an unlock.

Finish this lesson in MarketPro

The rest of Tokenomics: Supply And Inflation Schedules, a quiz that checks it landed, and your place kept in the curriculum.

11 more sections of this lesson
All 320 lessons, with no cap and no paywall
Free on any account, including a free one

In your browserContinue on webor continue on web

Same account as the app · No install · Free to start

Or scan with your phone camera to get the MarketPro app.

Download on theApp Store Get it onGoogle Play

Free account, no card needed.

Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Run the numbers while this is fresh

Work it through on your own position size. Nothing leaves your browser and there is no sign-up: Position size calculator, Leverage calculator.

Written and reviewed by the MarketPro research desk

MarketPro is a trading-signal and trading-education app operated by Harajuku Holdings LTD (Cyprus). Our signal desk publishes and tracks every trade idea in-app, and every page here is checked against the app's live behaviour before publishing. Last reviewed 15 September 2026. How we produce signals and content · About MarketPro

FAQ

Tokenomics: Supply And Inflation Schedules: questions

What is the difference between circulating supply and total supply?

Circulating supply is the number of tokens currently tradable in the market, and it is what market capitalisation is calculated from. Total supply includes everything minted so far, including tokens locked in vesting contracts, held by a treasury, or otherwise unavailable. The gap between the two is supply that exists and will become sellable on a published schedule.

Why does a token unlock affect the price?

Because it increases the number of tokens that can be sold without increasing demand. If the circulating float rises 40% overnight and the market's total valuation of the project stays the same, the price per token has to fall by roughly 28% to accommodate it. Whether it does depends on how much of the newly unlocked supply is actually sold and how much fresh demand arrives.

Is a fixed maximum supply good for a cryptocurrency?

It removes one source of dilution, which matters, but it says nothing on its own about demand. A capped token with no users is still worth little, and an uncapped one with strong fee revenue and a burn mechanism can be net deflationary. The useful question is the net annual change in circulating supply, not whether a ceiling exists somewhere far above the current figure.

Trade · Learn · Earn

The whole academy is free in MarketPro

All 320 lessons, 12 guided paths, quizzes and a daily streak. Free on every account, in the app or your browser, with vetted free signals alongside it.

In your browserContinue on webor continue on web Download on theApp Store Get it onGoogle Play

Same account as the app · No install · Free to start

Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.