Pennant Patterns
A sharp thrust, a tight coil, and the point where dealing cost eats more of the trade than the structure is worth.
A pennant is a short continuation pattern: a sharp directional move (the pole) followed immediately by a small converging consolidation that looks like a miniature symmetrical triangle. It is generally read in the direction of the pole and confirmed by a close beyond the converging lines. The pole length is commonly projected from the breakout point as a rough objective.
What to remember
- Converging lines make it a pennant; parallel lines make it a flag. Context and duration separate it from a symmetrical triangle.
- Check the spread against the width of the coil. If dealing cost is a third of the structure, the pattern is not tradeable on that instrument.
- The full pole projection is the most optimistic reading available, and a 7 to 1 ratio on a 30 dollar idea is still a 30 dollar idea.
- A tight coil before a scheduled release looks identical to a pennant and is an event trade, not a structural one.
Lesson 11 of 22 in Chart patterns
A pennant is a small converging consolidation that forms immediately after a sharp directional move. The move is the pole, the tight triangle that follows is the pennant, and the pattern is generally read in the direction of the pole. It differs from a flag in shape (converging lines rather than parallel ones) and from a symmetrical triangle in context and duration: a pennant follows a thrust and resolves in a handful of bars.
Why the shape converges
A pennant is what a market looks like when a sharp move runs out of immediate sellers or buyers but nobody wants to take the other side either. The first pullback after the thrust is the largest, because that is when profit-taking is heaviest. Each subsequent swing is smaller, because there are fewer positions left to close and no fresh flow arriving in either direction. The lines converge because participation is draining, not because anyone has decided anything.
That is the useful mental model, and it explains the pattern's two characteristics at once. It is short, because drained participation is a temporary state. And it is directional, because the imbalance that produced the pole has not been resolved, only paused.
A six pip coil on USD/JPY
Say USD/JPY runs from 155.00 to 156.20 inside an hour, a 120 pip pole. Over the next eight bars it coils: a pullback to 155.80, a bounce to 156.05, a dip to 155.88, a bounce to 155.98, a dip to 155.92. The highs are falling and the lows are rising, and by the end the whole range is 6 pips wide.
Price closes above the upper line at 156.00 and you enter at 156.02. Invalidation sits below the last two lows of the coil, at 155.85, which is 17 pips of risk. The conventional objective projects the pole from the breakout: 156.02 plus 120 pips is 157.22.
That prices at roughly 7 to 1 on paper, which should immediately make you suspicious, and the suspicion is warranted. Three things degrade it. Spread on USD/JPY of around 1 pip is nearly 6 percent of the stop, paid on the round turn whether the trade works or not. Slippage on a breakout entry in a fast market is real and unmeasured. And the full pole projection is the most optimistic reading available, which most pennants do not deliver. Convert the objective into cash on the profit calculator and the stop into cash on the pip calculator, because a 7 to 1 idea worth 30 dollars is not the same thing as a 7 to 1 idea worth 300.
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Pennant Patterns: questions
What is the difference between a flag and a pennant?
How long should a pennant last?
Are pennants reliable on lower timeframes?
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