Reading Forecast, Previous, and Actual Data

Every economic calendar entry typically shows three figures once a release has occurred: the previous reading, the consensus forecast, and the actual result — and understanding how these interact is central to reading the calendar correctly.

The previous figure is the last reported value for that data series, giving a baseline for comparison. The forecast (or consensus) reflects the average expectation among economists surveyed ahead of the release. The actual is the real reported figure once it's published.

• Markets often react most strongly to the gap between forecast and actual, since the forecast represents what was already priced into the market beforehand.
• A result that beats the previous reading but misses the forecast can still trigger a negative market reaction, since it fell short of what was already expected.
• Some calendars also show a revised previous figure, since many data series are subject to revision after their initial release.