The P/E Ratio Explained
A price-to-earnings multiple is a statement about future growth. Work out what growth it implies and the question stops being vague.
The price-to-earnings ratio is the share price divided by earnings per share, so a $68 stock earning $2.00 a share trades on a P/E of 34. It says how many years of current profit you are paying for. Inverted, it gives an earnings yield of 2.9%, which is comparable to a bond yield. A high multiple is a claim that earnings will grow substantially, and that claim can be turned into a specific growth rate and checked.
What to remember
- Invert the ratio to get an earnings yield. A P/E of 34 is a 2.9% yield, which is directly comparable to a bond.
- A P/E of 34 settling to 18 in five years at a flat price requires 13.6% annual earnings growth. State the assumption and test it.
- Trailing P/E uses audited history, forward P/E uses estimates that drift down. Websites rarely say which they show.
- The ratio is useless on negative earnings, at cyclical peaks, after one-off items and across different debt levels.
Step 5 of 10 on Stocks & Indices Basics
Price divided by earnings per share, and what the number means
The price-to-earnings ratio is the share price divided by earnings per share. A stock at $68 with earnings of $2.00 a share has a P/E of 34. Read literally, it says you are paying 34 times one year of current profit for a claim on that profit stream.
The inverse is more intuitive and less commonly used. Flip it and you get the earnings yield: $2.00 divided by $68 is 2.9%. That is the annual profit attributable to your shares, expressed as a return on what you paid, and comparing it to a government bond yield is the fastest way to see what the market is assuming.
A P/E of 34 is a bet on the next decade
Set that 2.9% earnings yield against a government bond paying 4.3%. The bond pays more, contractually, with no business risk attached. Anyone paying 34 times earnings is therefore not buying today’s profit. They are buying the expectation that the profit grows substantially.
Put a figure on how much. Suppose you expect the multiple to settle at a market-typical 18 within five years, and you want the share price to be at least flat at $68. Then earnings per share must reach $68 divided by 18, which is $3.78. Going from $2.00 to $3.78 in five years requires compound growth of 13.6% a year, sustained, every year, with no stumble.
| Year | EPS at 13.6% growth | Implied P/E at $68 |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | $2.00 | 34.0 |
| 2 | $2.58 | 26.4 |
| 4 | $3.33 | 20.4 |
| 5 | $3.78 | 18.0 |
That is what a high multiple actually asserts, and stating it this way converts a vague feeling that a stock is expensive into a specific, checkable claim about growth. If 13.6% a year for five years looks implausible for the business, the multiple is the problem rather than the price.
Trailing and forward, and why they disagree
Trailing P/E uses the last twelve months of reported earnings, which are audited and real. Forward P/E uses analyst estimates for the coming twelve months, which are neither. The same stock at $68 shows a P/E of 34 on $2.00 trailing earnings and 26 on a $2.60 forward estimate.
Neither is wrong, but they answer different questions, and financial websites rarely label which one they are showing. Forward estimates also drift downward through a year more often than upward, so a forward P/E quoted in January frequently looks optimistic by September. Where the two numbers differ a lot, the gap itself is the information: it is the size of the growth the market has already agreed to pay for.
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The P/E Ratio Explained: questions
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Does a low P/E mean a stock is cheap?
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